Five predictions for crowd management
With low capacities and few commuters, some might think that crowd management in museums and cultural attractions has become a moot point. But are crowds in our cultural spaces really a thing of the past? And if not, what does COVID-19 mean for the crowd management of the future?
When I tell people that I gained a qualification in crowd management as part of my work in museums, I tend to attract a few raised eyebrows from the non-museum workers in my circle. Crowds are something they associate with sports events, concerts and music festivals; not museums. And yet at museum and heritage sites, we excel in inviting large numbers of people into spaces that were never designed to be used in this way, never mind planned with contemporary health and safety policies in mind. This carries with it all sorts of risks.
When I worked at the Natural History Museum, for example, we were getting up to 25,000 visitors a day, across a relatively small piece of real estate. Crowds like this need to be managed and planned for, and failing to do so can have disastrous consequences.
In the last year or so, however, we’ve experienced (when they were open) relatively crowd-free attractions. In some venues, many visitors have commented on how this provides a more high-quality visitor experience. There’s uncertainty about what might happen next. Will people eschew crowded places forever?
I don’t think so. We might be experiencing an interruption, but in my opinion, crowded cultural attractions are not a thing of the past. Crowds came back after Spanish Flu, and TB, and even the Plague, so I think it’s a pretty sure thing that they’re here to stay. But, with the knowledge that we’ll probably have to live with COVID-19 in some form for the rest of our lives, crowd managers will now have the additional challenge of virus transmission to take into account. It’s probably time to start planning.
Although there has been relatively little written so far about COVID-19 and high-volume crowd management in museums and heritage sites, there are other sources we can draw on. In October 2020, supplementary guidance to the Purple Guide (the primary guide to safety at music and other events) was published by the Events Industry Forum, in consultation with the Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS), Public Health England (PHE) and the Health and Safety Executive (HSE)[i]. In the US, the American National Standards Institute (ANSI) released new crowd management guidelines earlier this year[ii]. Both of these documents give an insight into the issues museums and other cultural attractions may have to consider as visitors begin to return in larger volumes.
So, having reflected on the new guidance, and thinking about what the future might be for our museums and cultural attractions, here are my five predictions for crowd management in the years ahead.
1. Crowds are coming back
Outside of the museum and heritage sector, there are clear signs that the tentative green shoots of crowd events are showing through. High participation sporting events have already been announced for 2021. In theme parks, one operator I spoke to said they were fully booked for their opening day on 12th April: the first day restrictions allow outdoor attractions to open. Although Coachella and Glastonbury remain cancelled for this year, the Reading and Leeds festivals were recently announced as due to go ahead, and with the Prime Minister recently setting out a road map that could see all social distancing measures dropped as early as June 2021, it’s clear that large scale events are poised to stage a comeback[iii]. Whether or not this all happens as early as currently predicted is anyone’s guess, but what is certain is that the appetite for large cultural events remains strong. One also has to concede that the various expert bodies involved in writing new crowd guidance probably wouldn’t have bothered to put the effort in if they thought crowds were a thing of the past.
How does this translate to the (largely) indoor museum and heritage sector? Whilst audiences still express concern about returning to indoor spaces, experts also believe that this will change and improve as vaccine confidence grows[iv]. Visitors coming back in large numbers to indoor sites will no doubt take longer to materialise than for outdoor spaces, but I think they will be back. Some commentators have spoken of a predicted ‘cultural boom’ in the next decade, a period of creative self-expression and celebration following great upheaval, much like the Jazz Age following the First World War[v]. Against such a backdrop, and with depleted reserves to make up, it seems unlikely to me that cultural institutions will be scaling back activity – even if takes a few years to come to fruition.
What might well have a long-term impact, however, are some of the measures the sector has taken to manage COVID-19. For example, in 2020 many venues introduced timed ticketing to better manage their visitor flow. Although there will always be some audiences who would rather buy on the day[vi], there is hope across the sector that having got used to pre-booking, visitors will continue to plan ahead. At the moment, many of these newly-installed systems have only been used to manage a fraction of normal capacity. In the future, we could see them being used to spread a larger visitor load across the day, meaning museums and cultural attractions could welcome just as many visitors as before. Another factor in this could be flexible working arrangements. If flexible working practise is something that is retained beyond COVID-19, as many are predicting, people are less likely to be pinned into Monday-Friday, nine to five schedules; so why not take your daily walk through your local museum or art gallery[vii]? All this points to a visitor load that has less peaks and troughs across days and seasons.
So, it may be that crowds are still there, they just look different to us as operators, and most importantly, to our visitors.
2. Planning is still key
Good crowd management practise has always been based on anticipating factors influencing your event or venue (how many people are coming, how are they likely to behave etc.) and planning efficiently. This has not changed because of COVID-19; in fact, if anything, it has only become more important. In fact, Steven Adelman, from the US Event Safety Alliance points out that even the small numbers allowed at events during COVID-19 restrictions benefit from careful planning:
“Ultimately, crowd management comes down to the art of anticipation: It’s not just about anticipating what could go wrong, but how people will respond to potential emergencies. This is an important exercise even when planners are dealing with small crowd numbers”[viii].
Adelman also points out that many of the risks associated with crowds do not disappear just because the numbers are smaller:
“For example, low crowd density doesn’t guarantee that attendees will notice any exits beyond the doorway they initially used to enter the building. If the main entrance becomes blocked during an emergency, obvious wayfinding signage becomes essential to quickly guide them safely to other means of egress”[ix].
Crowd behaviour might have changed in other ways too. Will COVID-19 make people more likely to panic? Will anxiety have increased in an emergency? We just don’t have enough data on issues like this at the moment, which is why live drills and scenario planning are even more important now than they were pre-COVID[x]. We also need to think about the comfort gap; the difference between people who have quickly reacclimatised to crowded scenarios and those who have residual anxiety and discomfort. The presence of this comfort gap in our audiences may well lead to increased conflict; something that was experienced by many cultural attractions last summer[xi].
As well as the usual checklists we work through when planning crowd management, COVID-19 means there is even more to take into consideration. How can the operation be scaled up or down if restrictions change? What is your audience profile, and what difference does this make? What if vaccine certificates or passports become part of the event administration?
All of this points to additional planning, and for operators, this means more thinking time and more flexibility when it comes to crowd management.
To help, the Mayor of London has published a checklist for COVID-19 safe event planning, much of which can be applied to daily crowd management:
3. Infrastructure needs reassessed
Much of the infrastructure that has been put into place for COVID-19 management is untested in crowd scenarios. After all, in the last few months we’ve been lucky to even open our attractions, never mind get them up to full capacity. But if visitor numbers rise, it’s important to check that infrastructure with crowd safety in mind.
Some measures, such as one-way systems and perspex screens might have vanished before we start to think about high volume crowds. But some might stay: staff might prefer the protection of a screen now that they have it, and as a society, we all might agree that having hand-sanitisers dotted around our cities is no bad thing. So, either way, make sure you take the time to reassess.
For example, the ANSI guidelines advise operators to think about how clear barriers can affect sightlines, potentially making egress more complicated:
“If planners have set up plexiglass barriers to limit airborne transmission, will they need to use extra signage to help attendees navigate around these structures in an emergency?[xii]”
Conversely, does the widespread proliferation of COVID signage make emergency messaging harder to spot? We know that at a certain point, visitors stop seeing signage, so it’s important to ensure that critical pieces, like emergency exit signs, still stand out.
Is one-way system infrastructure easy to remove in the event of an emergency evacuation? Are sanitisation stations in the way of key visitor flows? How will those with additional access needs interact with the new infrastructure in an emergency? Will gathering test and trace information cause dangerous bottlenecks when visitor numbers increase? So far, crowd management and COVID management have yet to meet. Before they do, make sure you know the answers to these questions and have solved any problems before they arise.
4. We’ll care more about air
One thing that is going to be key to safe crowd management, whether at events or the day-to-day operation of an attraction, is air handling. This is a topic that has been basically absent from previous crowd management guidance, but has made a strong appearance in newly published supplementary guidance, for obvious reasons. The new Purple Guide advice states:
“Good ventilation can help reduce the risk of spreading coronavirus, so event organisers should focus on improving general ventilation, preferably through fresh air or mechanical systems.
Where possible, event organisers should consider ways to increase the supply of fresh air, for example, lifting or removing side walls from enclosed or partially enclosed structures such as marquees or using fans to circulate fresh air[xiii].”
The positive impact of good ventilation has already been understood by operators, with increased ventilation used as a factor in determining COVID secure capacities. However, managing air ventilation effectively can be tricky in heritage buildings, and it’s always something you should take expert advice on. The Federation of European Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning Associations (REHVA) has published good COVID-19 guidance at https://www.rehva.eu/activities/covid-19-guidance including an occupancy calculator and professional development resources.
5. Collaboration is critical
One of the most positive things to come out of the current crisis in the museum and heritage sector has been an immense amount of collaboration and solidarity between organisations[xiv]. When it comes to planning for the future of crowd management, collaboration is only going to become more important.
Firstly, as has been the case throughout the COVID-19 crisis, working closely with local authorities, government and any funding bodies will be critical to ensuring all activities are in line with the current restrictions; whatever they happen to be at the time.
Secondly, learning from best practise across the heritage and cultural sector has been hugely important to the success of attractions that have already reopened. The incredible amount of sector collaboration (facilitated by sector bodies such as the Association of Leading Visitor Attractions, the Association of Cultural Enterprises and, for operational professionals, the Visitor Experience Development Forum) have further opened lines of communication that were already flowing and this can only benefit us when we come to look at increased visitor numbers.
Finally, collaboration might need to become even more practical from a crowd management point of view. The new Purple Guide supplementary guidance for events states:
“Individual businesses or venues should consider the cumulative impact of many venues re-opening in a small area. This means working with local authorities, neighbouring businesses and travel operators to assess this risk and potentially applying additional mitigations. These could include:
Further lowering capacity - even if it is possible to safely seat a number of people inside a venue, it may not be safe for them all to travel or enter that venue.
Staggering entry times with other venues and taking steps to avoid queues building up in surrounding areas.
Arranging one-way travel routes between transport hubs and venues.
Advising patrons to avoid particular forms of transport or routes and to avoid crowded areas when in transit to the venue.[xv]”
It’s worth considering what these guidelines could look like when applied to the daily business of visitor attractions. At the very least, it means considering the travel to and from the attraction, and working in tandem with transport providers where possible. Attractions could also partner in ways that facilitate better crowd management. For example, could the V&A, Natural History Museum and Science Museum agree to stagger closing times to reduce crowding at South Kensington Station? Lateral thinking and a willingness to work with partners beyond our physical boundaries just might be the key to increasing visitor confidence.
Conclusion
As museum and cultural attraction operators consider a return to something like normal, we do it with the understanding that everything has changed. Yet, in many ways, the consideration we bring to post-COVID operations is nothing but sector best practise. Thinking about how the experiences we provide fit into the wider world of our visitors is something that we should have been doing already, and if not, here’s the time to start. If reassessing our practice encourages us to consider the whole visitor journey, from the moment the visitor steps out of their front door, and leads to a more holistic appreciation of the visitor experience in our organisations, we will not say the effort has been wasted.
Sources:
[i] Events Industry Forum (2020) Keeping Workers and Audiences Safe During COVID-19 in the Outdoor Event Industry in England, Events Industry Forum available at https://www.eventsindustryforum.co.uk/index.php/11-features/14-keeping-workers-and-audiences-safe-during-covid-19 accessed 28 February 2021
[ii] Tupper, Angela (2020) Even Smaller Events Will Have Crowd Management Guidelines, Event Manager Blog available at https://www.eventmanagerblog.com/covid-events-crowd-management accessed 28 February 2021
[iii] BBC (2021) Which Music Festivals will go Ahead in 2021?, Newsbeat available at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-56199403 accessed 28 February 2021
[iv] Vosper, Katie (2021) A Changing Landscape for Attractions, BVA BDRC, available at https://www.bva-bdrc.com/opinions/a-changing-landscape-for-attractions/ accessed 28 February 2021
[v] Glenza, Jessica (2020) Epidemiologist Looks to the Past to Predict Second Post-Pandemic ‘Roaring 20s’, The Guardian available at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/21/epidemiologist-1918-flu-pandemic-roaring-20s-post-covid accessed 3 March 2021
[vi] Young, Jon (2021) Pre-booking Insights for Visitor Attractions, BVA BDRC, available at https://www.bva-bdrc.com/opinions/pre-booking-insights-for-visitor-attractions/ accessed 28 February 2021
[vii] Partridge, Joanna and Makortoff, Kayleena (2021) Out of office: what the homeworking revolution means for our cities, The Guardian available at https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/feb/27/out-of-office-what-the-homeworking-revolution-means-for-our-cities accessed on 28 February 2021
[viii] Tupper, Angela (2020) Even Smaller Events Will Have Crowd Management Guidelines, Event Manager Blog available at https://www.eventmanagerblog.com/covid-events-crowd-management accessed 28 February 2021
[ix] Tupper, Angela (2020) Even Smaller Events Will Have Crowd Management Guidelines, Event Manager Blog available at https://www.eventmanagerblog.com/covid-events-crowd-management accessed 28 February 2021
[x] Mackay, Rachel (2020) Practical Resources for Crisis Management, The Recovery Room available at https://www.therecoveryroomblog.com/practical-resources accessed 28 February 2021
[xi] Mackay, Rachel (2020) Conflict Resolution, The Recovery Room available at https://www.therecoveryroomblog.com/conflict-resolution accessed 7 March 2021
[xii] Tupper, Angela (2020) Even Smaller Events Will Have Crowd Management Guidelines, Event Manager Blog available at https://www.eventmanagerblog.com/covid-events-crowd-management accessed 28 February 2021
[xiii] Events Industry Forum (2020) Keeping Workers and Audiences Safe During COVID-19 in the Outdoor Event Industry in England, Events Industry Forum available at https://www.eventsindustryforum.co.uk/index.php/11-features/14-keeping-workers-and-audiences-safe-during-covid-19 accessed 28 February 2021
[xiv] Mackay, Rachel (2020): Crisis in Context 4: Helping Hands, The Recovery Room available at https://www.therecoveryroomblog.com/blog/crisis-in-context-4 accessed 28 February 2021
[xv] Events Industry Forum (2020) Keeping Workers and Audiences Safe During COVID-19 in the Outdoor Event Industry in England, Events Industry Forum available at https://www.eventsindustryforum.co.uk/index.php/11-features/14-keeping-workers-and-audiences-safe-during-covid-19 accessed 28 February 2021
